Or so says the Shepherd’s Almanac for 1676. Until the 12th Night we were predicting that the weather on each of the 12 days will match the month of the same number. But having past Twelfth Night we have to find turn to other methods of weather lore.
Weather lore seems convinced of the undesirability of a warm January
‘January warm, the Lord have mercy’.
‘January commits the fault and May bears the blame.’
‘If Birds begin to Whistle in January, frosts to come’
‘When gnats swarm in January, the peasant become a beggar’
Most of the sayings about January quoted in Richard Inwards ‘Weather Lore’ first published in 1893, have this as their main focus. And the contrary (cold January good growing season) also generally holds:
‘When oak trees bend with snow in January, good crops may be expected.’
‘A cold January, a feverish February, a dusty March, a weeping April , and a windy May presage a good year and gay.’
The Weather according to Animals
So much for long range forecasts. Let’s see how Weather Lore helps us use animals to determine whether it will rain today.
‘If animals crowd together, rain will follow.’
‘When dogs eat grass it will be rainy‘
‘When a cat sneezes, it is a sign of rain‘
‘If young horses do rub their backs against the ground, if is a sign of great drops of rain to follow.’
The only weather lore repeated in my family was ‘Cows sitting down means it will rain.’ (And of course ‘red sky at night, shepherd’s delight’ etc).
Meteorology Office on weather lore.
A survey by the Met Office in 2017 found that a surprisingly large number of people (75%) use ‘folklore’ to predict weather and 55% think they are useful methods of predictions. Here is a quote from their post.
- Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight – used by 70% of UK adults – CORRECT
- It can be too cold to snow – used by 49% – PROBABLY NOT IN THE UK
- Cows lie down when it is about to rain – used by 44% – NOT CORRECT
- Pine cones open up when good weather is coming – used by 26% CORRECT
- If it rains on St Swithin’s day, it will rain on each of the next 40 days – used by 22% Not Correct. In factt since records began in 1861, there has never been a record of 40 dry or 40 wet days following St Swithin’s Day
Met Office 2017 do-cows-really-lie-down-when-its-about-to-rain and BBC Newsround
For more folk forecasting read my post on St Swithin’s Day