Tag: Prophecy

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Weather Lore: ‘If on January 12th the sun shine, it foreshows much wind.’

Abney Park cemetary in winter
Winter at Abney Park Cemetery photo by Harriet Salisbury

Or so says the Shepherd’s Almanac for 1676. Until the 12th Night we were predicting that the weather on each of the 12 days will match the month of the same number. But having past Twelfth Night we have to find turn to other methods of weather lore.

Weather lore seems convinced of the undesirability of a warm January

‘January warm, the Lord have mercy’.

‘January commits the fault and May bears the blame.’

‘If Birds begin to Whistle in January, frosts to come’

‘When gnats swarm in January, the peasant become a beggar’

Most of the sayings about January quoted in Richard Inwards ‘Weather Lore’ first published in 1893, have this as their main focus. And the contrary (cold January good growing season) also generally holds:

‘When oak trees bend with snow in January, good crops may be expected.’

‘A cold January, a feverish February, a dusty March, a weeping April , and a windy May presage a good year and gay.’

The Weather according to Animals

So much for long range forecasts. Let’s see how Weather Lore helps us use animals to determine whether it will rain today.

‘If animals crowd together, rain will follow.’

‘When dogs eat grass it will be rainy‘

‘When a cat sneezes, it is a sign of rain‘

‘If young horses do rub their backs against the ground, if is a sign of great drops of rain to follow.’

The only weather lore repeated in my family was ‘Cows sitting down means it will rain.’ (And of course ‘red sky at night, shepherd’s delight’ etc).

Meteorology Office on weather lore.

A survey by the Met Office in 2017 found that a surprisingly large number of people (75%) use ‘folklore’ to predict weather and 55% think they are useful methods of predictions. Here is a quote from their post.

  • Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight – used by 70% of UK adults – CORRECT
  • It can be too cold to snow – used by 49% – PROBABLY NOT IN THE UK
  • Cows lie down when it is about to rain – used by 44% – NOT CORRECT
  • Pine cones open up when good weather is coming – used by 26% CORRECT
  • If it rains on St Swithin’s day, it will rain on each of the next 40 days – used by 22% Not Correct. In factt since records began in 1861, there has never been a record of 40 dry or 40 wet days following St Swithin’s Day

Met Office 2017 do-cows-really-lie-down-when-its-about-to-rain and BBC Newsround

For more folk forecasting read my post on St Swithin’s Day

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New Year’s Eve, Old Style, Witchcraft & Carmentalia January 11th

1375, French Caesarian Birth, (caesarians at this time would have killed the mother or be performed when she was already dead or dying.)

When Britain reluctantly joined the Gregorian Calendar, in 1752, we lost 11 days. So if you add 11 to 31st December you get to New Year Old Style. You can do this with any date, and when celebrating, feel you are being really authentic.

So, anything you did on the New Year’s Eve New Style (31st Dec), you can do today. Except, of course, when you call in sick because of a hangover you will need to convince your boss of the illegitimacy of the Gregorian Calendar! In case you have forgotten what you should be doing on New Year’s Eve you can look at my post here to find out.

Witches

It’s a particularly ‘witchy’ evening because it is the traditional Eve, not the newfangled one. Reginald Scot in his ‘Discovery of Witchcraft’ first published in 1584 reports on a way to find witches:

‘a charm to find who has bewitched your cattle. Put a pair of breeches upon the cow’s head, and beat her out of the pasture with a good cudgel upon a Friday and she will run right to the witch’s door and strike it with her horns‘

Reginald Scott’s book is available on this website and is a fascinating read. But, perhaps I need to say: don’t try this at home, as it is not supported by scientific research.

When I first posted this in 2022. I did not, to my shame, know the background to the book. I assumed the book was advocating this nonsense that a cow could lead you to whoever bewitched it. On the contrary. Reginald Scot was trying to debunk the absurd claims for witchcraft and magic. His book tries to prove that witchcraft and magic were rejected both by reason and religion. He believed that manifestations of either were ‘wilful impostures or illusions due to mental disturbance in the observers’.

The book is evidence that the large number of people who were executed as witches in the 16th and 17th Century, were the victims of a QAnon-like conspiracy which was rejected by many educated and rational people. Please have a good look at the cover of this 17th Century edition of Reginald Scot’s book. It gives a good idea of what he was setting out to counteract. Scot was a member of Parliament for New Romney, in Kent.

Frontispiece of Scots Discovery of Witchcraft.

Carmentalia

Carmenta or Nicostrata, black and white medallion of the Goddess of Childbirth
Carmenta or Nicostrata , Goddess of Prophecy, Childbirth, Midwives and Technical Innovations. Published by Guillaume Rouille (1518?-1589) – “Promptuarii Iconum Insigniorum”

It is also Carmentalia, the festival for Carmenta, the Roman Goddess of prophecy and childbirth. She was a much loved Goddess in the Roman pantheon. But little is known about her, perhaps because she has no clear match in the Greek pantheon. However, she was thought to be a nymph of the Arcadians, called Themis.

She has a long history in the story of Rome. This may surprise you, she was the mother of Evander. Who is he? I hear you shouting! Well, he is the founder of Pallantium. Where on earth is that? You cry. It is the City on the site of Rome (on the Palatine Hill) that predated Rome! Who knew that? (The people at Vindolanda Roman Fort know, and they have a great page on Carmenta here). The City was supposed to be of Greek origin, founded 60 years before the fall of Troy. Later, it was absorbed into Rome.

Carmenta had two sidekicks who were her sisters and attendants. Postvorta and Antevorta, They might be explained by Past and Future. (or, After and Before) as part of her role in prophecy. Or the two figures could represent babies that are either born head or legs first. She was an important enough Diety to command one of the fifteen flamen. These were priests of state-sponsored religions. One of their jobs was to ensure no one came to the temple wearing anything of leather. Leather was created from death, and not suitable for the Goddess of Childbirth, who was all about life.

The Vindolanda post makes the point that 2% of pre-modern births are likely to have caused the death of the mother. Because there was a high child mortality the Roman Mother would have to have 5 children on average to keep the population stable. With a 2% death rate, and 5 children, they estimate that each mother had a 12% chance of death by giving birth. Good reason to have a Goddess on the Mum’s side. She is also the Goddess of Midwives.

She was originally known as Nicostrata. She was credited with creating the Latin Alphabet by adding additional letters to the Greek one. So, she is also the Goddess of Technological Innovation. Some Goddess!

First published in Jan 2022, revised January 2024, 2025

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Sliding Ducks & the Equivocation of Prophecy – November 3rd

Ducks in Winter Photo by <a href="https://unsplash.com/@timromanov?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash">Timur Romanov</a> on <a href="https://unsplash.com/photos/ducks-on-water-a5U8v7Pm-yg?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash">Unsplash</a>
Timur Romanov, Photo from Unsplash

Folklore is full of ways of predicting the future – mostly about the weather or love. The Perpetual Almanac by Charles Kightly features many of these in rhyme form of the ‘Sky at Night Shepherd’s Delight’ type. Here is a seasonal one.

If ducks do slide at Hallowentide
At Christmas they will swim
If ducks do swim at Hallowentide
At Christmas they will slide

From my experience, in the south of the UK, this is simply not true as we very rarely get ice in early November, and don’t get snow at Christmas that often. But maybe, the further north you go, the truer this becomes. But it’s good to remember what Macbeth said on seeing the wood moving to Dunsinane ‘(I) begin to doubt the equivocation of the fiend, that lies like truth.’ as he realises that prophecy is a double-edged sword which has led him to his doom. He had been told by the Three Witches that he:

‘shall never vanquish’d be until Great Birnam Wood to high Dunsinane Hill shall come against him’

Still, as he heads to the final battle, Macbeth knows he is invincible and that ‘none of woman born shall harm Macbeth’.

But in his savage fight with Macduff, he is told that Macduff was not of woman born, but rather ‘from his mother’s womb / Untimely ripped’. And Macbeth is killed.

In reality Macbeth, was a successful King who reigned for 17 years, and was one of the last Gaelic Kings as Scottish society was changing with contact with England.

This is a draft of the text that forms part of my best-selling book ‘Divorced, Beheaded, Died’ The Kings and Queens of Britain in Bite-sized Chunks’

King Macbeth (Mac Bethad mac Findlaích) 1040 – 1057

Macbeth was nicknamed the Red King. He was a Gaelic speaker, descended from the Kings of Dal Riata. Macbeth’s father, Finlay MacRory, was Mormaer (Grand Steward) of Moray. He was murdered by Gillacomgain, who took MacRory’s title. Gillacomgain was burnt to death with 50 of his followers, probably by Macbeth, who thus not only regained the title as ruler of Moray but married his dead rival’s widow, Gruoch. She was the granddaughter of Kenneth II. Macbeth was also himself descended from the Kings of Scotland via his mother Donada probably daughter of Malcolm II.

His claim to the throne was therefore strong, and following the disasters of King Duncan’s reign, Macbeth seized the opportunity to take the throne for himself.

He ruled well for nearly 2 decades imposing a strong sense of law and order, encouraging Christianity and leading successful raids across the border into England. In 1050 he went on pilgrimage to Rome. Exiled Normans, supporters of Edward the Confessor were settled in Scotland in Macbeth’s reign. There is no evidence that Macbeth was any more evil then the rest of the early Scottish Kings.

In 1057 Macbeth was killed in battle against Duncan I’s son who became Malcolm III. Macbeth is buried on Iona. He and Gruoch had no children but Guoch’s son, Lulach, son of Gillacomgain briefly followed Macbeth as king before being assassinated by Malcolm III

‘Divorced, Beheaded, Died’ The Kings and Queens of Britain in Bite-sized Chunks’ for more details look here.

Prophecy ‘lies like the truth’ a trope that is used in many ancient tales such as Oedipus Rex.

The 3rd of November is the Hilaria, the last day of the festival of Isis/Osiris, the day of the rebirth of Osiris. Isis was the wife (and brother) of Osiris God-King of Egypt who was killed by his brother. Isis restored his body to life for long enough to conceive their son Horus, who revenged his father, regained the throne, restored Cosmic Order and completed the resurrection of Osiris. Isis is normally shown holding the baby Horus in a pose that may have influenced images of the Virgin Mary. Londinium would have had a celebration on this day as there is a pot found near London Bridge inscribed ‘At London, at the Temple of Isis).

Roman pot with Isis inscription, London

Also on this day

St Winefred’s Day She was beheaded by Caradog who would not take her refusal to have him because of her religious views. She was restored to life by St Beuno, or St Bono.

First Posted on 3 November 2021. Revised 3 November 2023 & 2024